- Polymarket bettors are putting their money on former First Lady Michelle Obama to win the 2024 Presidential Election.
- This speculation has helped propel Polymarket to a new all-time high in total monthly volume.
- Past predictions on Polymarket, such as for the 2020 election, have shown accuracy in forecasting election results.
Speculators have already bet $2.3 million that Michelle Obama will be the next US President — at least on one market.
Today, Polymarket bettors give Michelle a 4% chance to win the 2024 election.
It’s a low chance, but gives the former First Lady the third-highest odds for any candidate listed, per the decentralised prediction market.
In the top spot, former President Donald Trump has a 54% chance of winning the election, with current President Joe Biden at 38%.
The only other candidates listed who are actively running are Nikki Haley and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., both with a 1% chance to win.
Also noteworthy is Vivek Ramaswamy, who received the third-highest volume in total bets of over $2.2 million.
Since dropping out from the race this month, his odds have dropped to less than 1% chance of winning.
Besides political candidates, musician Kanye West is also listed, boasting more than $1.4 million in lifetime betting volume.
His chances of winning are less than half a percent.
A look into the crypto ball
A candidate’s chances to win are determined by what Polymarket users are willing to bet. Each candidate, or outcome, allows users to bet “Yes” if they believe the candidate will win or “No” if they think the candidate will lose.
Besides elections, there are other markets for when the SEC will approve an Ethereum ETF, and another on the valuation of Reddit on IPO day.
Each outcome starts trading at $0.50 and changes depending on how much users bet on one side or the other. Trading for the election winner market expires on November 5, 2024, election day in the US.
Users can buy and sell shares with the stablecoin USDC through popular crypto wallets like MetaMask or Coinbase wallet. Market makers receive weekly rewards for providing liquidity in each market.
Michelle Obama’s “Yes” shares are currently worth $0.04, which means bettors give her a 4% chance to win and a 96% chance to lose, per Polymarket.
If Michelle were to win the election and a user had purchased “Yes” shares at four cents, each share would expire worth $1.00, capping a gain of over 2,400%.
The “No” shares in this example would expire worthless.
Importantly, bettors needn’t wait until a market expires before realising a gain; users can sell their shares at any point before a market expires.
Hitting the mark
Polymarket’s track record of predicting events is somewhat mixed.
The market “Will Trump win the 2020 Presidential Election” expired just hours before the official results, with “No” shares trading at $0.59, indicating 59% of users expected a Biden win.
The “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15″ market was also correct, with “Yes” shares trading over $0.80 for almost all of the market’s life.
Polymarket isn’t always right, though.
In the summer of 2023, the day before the OceanGate vessel was found, “Yes” shares on the market “Will the missing submarine be found by June 23″ were trading at $0.09.
Polymarket rakes it in
Between bets around the Bitcoin ETF approval and American elections, Polymarket has been abuzz with activity.
The decentralised prediction market hit a new all-time high in monthly volume, raking in over $26.4 million in total betting volume from the 2024 Presidential Election market alone.
The volume for this year’s election market has already exceeded the $10.8 million total volume for the 2020 election market.
Ryan Celaj is DL News’ New York-based Data Correspondent. Reach out with tips at ryan@dlnews.com.
