- Bitcoin has failed to hold above $90,000 since February 25.
- Hayes predicts a substantial rise in Bitcoin’s price over Trump’s presidency.
- But he bets things will get worse in the short term.
Donald Trump’s policies will drive Bitcoin to $1 million at the end of his term.
That’s according to Arthur Hayes, the crypto influencer and chief investment officer at Maelstrom. On Monday, he argued that Trump’s policies will devalue the dollar and send Bitcoin surging.
“I’m painting a very rosy future picture for Bitcoin even though the markets are currently in the shitter,” Hayes wrote in a Monday blog.
The comments come as the crypto market shed almost 12% of its total value in February.
On Monday, it reclaimed some lost ground after Trump posted about his planned crypto reserve, but Hayes described the movement as “a violent dead cat bounce” after it lost those gains amid the president launching tariffs against Canada, China, and Mexico.
So how will Bitcoin get from its current $82,684 price to hit $1 million before the end of Trump’s term?
Bitcoin down to $70,000?
Hayes said digital assets will likely keep falling for a while as macro conditions are simply not good enough for them to surge right now — and it’s not just crypto that will suffer.
“Bitcoin is screaming that a liquidity crisis is nigh, even though the US stock market indices are still near their all-time highs,” he wrote. “I believe the Bitcoin signal, and as such, a severe US stock market correction is on the horizon, driven by recession fears.”
Bitcoin could drop down as low as $70,000 before it bounces back ahead of regular fiat markets, Hayes said.
What will trigger that bounce back? Trump increasing the amount of money in the system while decreasing the cost of it, Hayes said.
To that end, the Elon Musk-led Department of Governmental Efficiency, or DOGE, is doing the heavy lifting.
“The marginal driver of US economic growth exceptionalism has been the government itself,” wrote Hayes. By cutting spending from the federal government’s balance sheet and hundreds of thousands of workers from the payrolls, Trump risks triggering a recession tied to government spending cuts.
This could spur the Fed to lower interest rates, devaluing the dollar and spurring Powell to a new round of quantitative easing.
This will, in turn, push Bitcoin to $1 million by the end of Trump’s presidency, Hayes argued.
Hayes has previously argued that Trump’s policies will devalue the dollar, which will encourage investors to seek refuge in alternative assets like Bitcoin. This, he told DL News in January, will push Bitcoin to $250,000 by the end of this year.
Andrew Flanagan is a markets correspondent for DL News. Have a tip? Reach out to aflanagan@dlnews.com.