- Ethereum could surge as much as 75% on the back of a spot Ethereum ETF approval.
- The prediction comes as the deadline for the SEC to approve VanEck draws near.
- The skyrocketing odds for an approval have also caused confusion among bettors.
Ether will surge as high as $6,600 if US regulators green light spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds this week.
That is according to estimates made by Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, analysts at research firm Bernstein.
They noted that the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of similar Bitcoin products in January spurred a 75% rally in the following weeks.
“We would expect similar price action for ETH,” Chhugani and Sapra said in a report published on Tuesday.
With today’s prices, that would put the price of Ethereum north of $6,600. It hit its previous record of $4,878 in November 2021.
Ethereum is on a tear this week as speculation flies the SEC is warmed to approving ETFs. Ether has jumped 22% in the last 24 hours compared to a 4.5% uptick for Bitcoin, according to CoinGecko data.
Bernstein’s note to clients contributed to the surge of optimism lifting crypto after a choppy couple of months.
On Monday, a pair of influential Bloomberg Intelligence analysts caused a stir by improving the odds of an ETH ETF approval to 75% from 25%.
The deadline for the SEC to give VanEck’s Ethereum ETF application a thumbs up or down is Thursday.
Approval will likely be extended to several other applicants to avoid the SEC being seen as kingmaker.
But the drama has also created confusion in the market around the technical processes of filing for regulatory approval from the SEC.
The odds
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas said they changed their prediction on the ETF amid whispers the SEC was becoming more active in its chats with exchanges.
Hours later, the news hit that exchanges had been prompted to update and refile their applications, according to CoinDesk.
Seyffart and Balchunas said the SEC may approve the Ethereum ETFs in a two-step process rather than reject the entire application, which many investors had feared.
In other words, the SEC might approve an Ethereum ETF in principle but not the actual sale of the products in the marketplace — a distinction that market watchers have interpreted as optimistic.
“I don’t think I’ve ever been so happy to be wrong,” Noelle Acheson said in her Tuesday edition of her Crypto is Macro Now newsletter. “It looks like we just might get ETH spot ETFs listed in the US after all.”
Polymarket confusion
The tumult is whipsawing punters on Polymarket where they’ve placed $8 million worth of bets on the ETFs’ inbound rejection or approval.
But if it’s a two-step process, that could monkey wrench the wagering.
Indeed, bettors are already debating the fine print of when an application is actually approved by the SEC.
This isn’t the first time bettors have clashed on the way wagers are defined on Polymarket.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is up 4.5% to $70,360 over the past 24 hours.
- Ethereum is up 22% to $3,790.
What we’re reading
- Solana memecoin generator pump.fun is under attack from former team member — DL News.
- SEC Requests Updates To Nasdaq And CBOE Ethereum ETF Filings — Milk Road.
- Analysts Up Odds of Spot Ether ETF to 75% as Prometheum Launches Product That Treats ETH as a Security — Unchained.
- El Salvador’s Strategy For Stacking Sats — Milk Road.
- Grayscale CEO Sonnenshein resigns, replaced by Goldman exec: Crypto reacts — DL News.
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.