- The vote between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is less than 24 hours away.
- Crypto watchers say the outcome of the election will unleash a new rally.
- But how big that rally will be depends on who sits in the Oval Office.
Donald Trump’s bid to recapture the White House has the potential to catapult Bitcoin’s price.
That’s according to market watchers who’ve shared their predictions ahead of Tuesday’s vote.
For crypto, the US election is the culmination of an unprecedented lobbying effort that has seen the industry plough over $133 million to crypto-friendly candidates.
Industry watchers envision dramatically different trajectories for Bitcoin’s price depending on who ends up in the Oval Office.
If Trump wins
In Trump, industry pundits found an ally who has pledged to halt the Securities and Exchange Commission’s crypto crackdown, free Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, and create a national Bitcoin stockpile.
Traders should expect a short-term rally “as the market factors in increased certainty and the potential for a more supportive regulatory environment under his administration,” Joshua de Vos, Research Lead at CCData, told DL News.
Estimates differ about just how big that rally would be. In a Monday note, Bernstein analysts said Bitcoin’s price will reach as high as $90,000 on the back of a Trump victory.
David Brickell, head of international distribution at FRNT Financial, and former forex trader Chris Mills echoed that sentiment. They said that a Trump win will likely propel Bitcoin to a new record and eventual price of $100,000.
An even more bullish bet was delivered by Standard Chartered. The UK bank suggestedthat a so-called “Red Sweep” — a Republican win of the presidency, the Senate, and the House — will send Bitcoin’s price to as high as $125,000 by the end of 2024.
If Harris wins
Harris has been more tight-lipped about crypto. While her campaign has reportedly reached out to the industry, Harris herself has only said that she “will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets.”
Crypto detractors have dismissed those statements as “hollow words,” and voiced fear that she’ll continue the Biden Administration’s crypto crackdown.
As a result, analysts are more bearish about Bitcoin’s prospects.
“If Kamala Harris wins, we may see a short-term negative reaction as the market adjusts to new uncertainties,” de Vos said.
Yet, he noted that “her policies are still expected to bring greater clarity compared to the current administration’s generally hostile stance.”
Bernstein analysts estimated that Bitcoin could fall about 30% to $50,000 if the Democrats win.
Standard Chartered is more optimistic. Analysts there predict the price will climb to a record $75,000 this year if Harris wins.
Any outcome
Most analysts seem to agree that Bitcoin and other crypto assets are resilient enough to withstand whatever outcome.
Bernstein projects that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, no matter who wins.
“The Bitcoin genie is out of the bottle, and it is hard to reverse this course,” they wrote.
Moreover, macroeconomic tailwinds like whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and if China’s stimulus package will likely influence the price over the next few months, Brickell and Mills said.
“Regardless of who wins the election, the macro backdrop is supportive for Bitcoin to end the year well above current levels,” to $100,000 this year, Javier Rodriguez-Alarcon, chief commercial officer of digital asset platform XBTO, told DL News.
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.
