Will Biden say ‘malarkey’ when debating Trump? Polymarket bettors pile millions on strange wagers

Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden will face off on Thursday in a live televised debate for the first time in four years.

For crypto folks, the debate is a chance for either of the two politicians to mention Bitcoin — and potentially bring the industry back on investors’ minds.

“Over 100 million people globally will watch Trump and Biden compete to be more pro-economic growth and pro-crypto on Thursday,” Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, posted on X.

“Trump will talk about his upcoming appearance at the Bitcoin Conference and hit Biden for his lack of an Ethereum ETF,” Thompson said, adding that the event will push crypto prices to new heights.

Polymarket bets

Thompson isn’t the only one predicting a crypto shout-out during the event. Users of crypto betting platform Polymarket are piling millions of dollars into various debate-related wagers.

For example, over $300,000 has been placed on bets that Trump or Biden will utter specific phrases while on stage. For Biden, these words include “Israel,” “convicted felon,” “malarkey,” “Corn Pop,” or “come on.”

In Trump’s case, it’s “fake news,” “dementia,” “Sleepy Joe,” or “rigged,” among 15 different options.

So far, the market is estimating a 44% chance that Trump will say the words “crypto” or “Bitcoin.”

Other debate-related bets include questions such as: Will Biden close his eyes for more than 3 seconds during the event? Will the two candidates shake hands? Who will drink water first?

The most liquid bet — with over $766,000 wagered so far — is about Biden potentially dropping out of the presidential race after the debate. The market currently assigns a only 3% chance of that happening.

The 90-minute long debate will begin on Thursday at 9 pm Eastern Time.

Tom Carreras writes about markets for DL News. Got a tip about the presidential debate and crypto? Reach out at tcarreras@dlnews.com