- Betting pools predict different outcome than national polls in presidential race.
- Polymarket is vaulted into a mainstream force with Trump lauding results.
- Prediction site's volume is surging.
Just months ahead of the US election, Donald Trump has a commanding lead over President Joe Biden.
At least according to one gambling site few voters may know.
Polymarket, the online odds platform beloved by crypto bettors, shows that Trump has a 57% chance of winning and Biden has a 35% chance.
The result contrasts with Biden’s 0.3% edge in an average of national polls calculated by 538, a unit of ABC News, on June 23.
Trump, the former president and presumptive Republican Party nominee, promptly touted his showing on Polymarket on Truth Social, his social media channel.
— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) June 23, 2024
Polymarket, of course, is not a polling firm but an online betting platform that pools wagers together in “markets.” Users make bets with USDC, Circle’s stablecoin.
Polymarket is now morphing from an obscure “prediction market” into a more mainstream site thanks to the 2024 presidential contest.
Its trading volume has multiplied eight times in the last year to $53 million a month.
Trump’s support for crypto isn’t hurting.
In May, Trump urged attendees at his Mar-a-Lago estate to vote for him if they support crypto. He is also accepting crypto donations. So far, his campaign has only received $60,000 in crypto contributions.
“You need to be a little bit crypto-adjacent to join Polymarket,” Domer, the site’s most active pseudonymous bettor, told DL News in an interview. “There’s a little bit of a crypto bias to it.”
What is Polymarket?
With a pool of $181 million, betting on the presidential election is the platform’s richest jackpot. Still, there are over 129 different bets that users can make besides betting on the presidential election.
Bettors buy shares in specific outcomes for various events, including election results. As more people buy up shares in one outcome, the cost of those shares increases. If they sell, those shares drop.
That means that one share of betting on Trump winning the election currently costs $0.57, and one share of Biden winning costs $0.35.
“Because it is a crypto site, and there are more Trump-type people on it, that increases the price of Trump by some small amount,” said Domer.
If Trump wins, those shares will shoot to $1. If he loses, they will collapse to $0.
Liam Kelly is a DeFi correspondent at DL News. Got a tip about the election? Reach out at liam@dlnews.com.