- Polymarket odds of a new pope in 2025 jumped following Pope Francis’ death.
- The platform has often been criticised for hosting morbid wagers.
- The papal market drew over $2 million in user bets.
Catholics around the world are mourning the death of Pope Francis, the beloved pontiff who led the Church through more than twelve years of change and challenge.
But for gamblers on crypto-based prediction markets like Polymarket, it’s just another day to cash in on history.
Polymarket’s “New Pope in 2025?” betting pool, launched in late February, surged to near-certainty Monday morning following news of Francis’ death.
Punters betting on a papal transition this year saw odds go from 33% to 99% in a matter of hours.
One bettor, who goes by the handle ’syncope‘, is likely to earn more than $11,500 on the wager. They bought 26,266 shares at an average price of 56 cents and stand to profit if the College of Cardinals selects a new pope before the end of 2025.
It’s just a slice of the $182,000 in total profits they’ve made on the platform over the past year.
In total, the papal market has seen nearly $2 million in volume traded, making it one of Polymarket’s biggest active pools.
Odds meet reality
As for the pope, his death followed months of fragile health.
Francis, 88, had been admitted to a Rome hospital on February 14 with severe bronchitis.
His medical team later revealed he was suffering from pneumonia in both lungs and multiple infections, yet he continued to appear in public, including a surprise wheelchair appearance in St. Peter’s Square just weeks ago.
His resilience led many to believe he might recover. The Polymarket odds dropped as low as 33% on Friday, just before his condition took a final turn.
The market won’t officially resolve until a new pope is elected — a process that historically unfolds within weeks of a vacancy.
Trading on tragedy
The platform has come under fire on multiple other occasions for hosting bets seen by critics as morbid or distasteful.
In 2023, Polymarket drew backlash for letting users wager on the fate of the Titan submersible as rescuers searched for five missing passengers.
The market, titled “Will the Titan Submersible be found by Friday?”, racked up millions in volume even after it became clear the passengers had died days earlier.
Other markets have let traders speculate on whether Joe Biden would finish his last term or whether Donald Trump would serve time in prison.
Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at kbaird@dlnews.com.
