- Solana has had a tough time since the launch of the Libra memecoin.
- Bettors on Polymarket foresee more pain in store.
Solana’s price won’t hit an all-time high above $300 in March.
That’s according to bettors on Polymarket, who put the odds of the fifth-biggest cryptocurrency hitting a record this month at about 1%, down from 9% on March 2.
The odds for it falling further than its current $118.94, to $110, are currently at 72%.
The bets come amid a tumultuous month for Solana’s price, which has lost almost 60% of its value since President Donald Trump’s inauguration. It’s not alone. Rival cryptocurrency XRP faces similar odds, and the crypto market at large has lost about 30%, or $1.1 trillion, of its value during the same period.
A combination of factors has contributed to the crash such as Trump’s on-again, off-again trade war with China and the US’s closest allies, his pro-crypto policies failing to live up to industry watchers’ hype, and the $1.5 billion hack of exchange Bybit.
Solana itself was marred by controversy in February when Argentina’s President Javier Milei promoted the Libra memecoin, which was launched on the network and eventually reached $4 billion market value before crashing 80% within an hour.
Solana ETF
Polymarketeers also weigh the likelihood of Solana’s inclusion in a US strategic reserve of crypto assets.
After topping out at a 42% chance on March 2, the day Trump unexpectedly announced the establishment of a strategic crypto reserve that he said would include Solana, bettors now place the odds of Solana’s inclusion at 23%.
On Thursday, ahead of the White House’s first crypto summit, Trump signed an executive order to create a national Bitcoin reserve, and a digital asset stockpile. The order didn’t mention what cryptocurrencies would be included in the stockpile.
The odds of a Solana exchange-traded fund being approved in 2025 also slumped over the weekend, from 86% to 79% on Polymarket.
Several issuers have applied to launch a Solana ETF, including Franklin Templeton. Several of them have been acknowledged by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
JPMorgan predicted a Solana ETF could generate up to $6 billion in inflows.
Andrew Flanagan is a markets correspondent for DL News. Have a tip? Reach out to aflanagan@dlnews.com.