- Fresh conflict could test the Bitcoin-as-instability-hedge thesis.
- Venezuela and Lebanon have already turned to crypto amid hyperinflation.
Conflicts thousands of miles apart could test whether people in crypto-savvy countries really consider Bitcoin “digital gold.”
Noelle Acheson, author of the “Crypto is Macro Now,” said a disputed election in Venezuela and fear that the war in Gaza could spread to Lebanon are “likely to affect the price of BTC.”
Geopolitical instability can send investors running to “safe” assets such as gold, which is up 1% since July 26.
“Citizens of both Venezuela and Lebanon are well familiar with crypto as a payments mechanism and store of value,” Acheson wrote.
Both are small markets, the analyst acknowledged. But if people there turn to Bitcoin as tensions rise, “non-speculative use cases will be noticed,” she wrote.
Venezuela’s economy has collapsed under the leadership of leftist strongman Nicolás Maduro.
Amid the crisis, regular Venezuelans struggling to get by and the government itself, battered by US and EU sanctions, have turned to crypto, according to Reuters reports.
Maduro has declared victory in elections held on Sunday. But the opposition party has released data that, it says, shows it won in a landslide, the New York Times reported.
Leaders of both parties have asked their followers to protest.
In the Middle East, a rocket killed 12 children and teenagers in the Golan Heights, Syrian territory that has long been occupied by Israel.
Israel has blamed Lebanon-based terrorist organisation Hezbollah, which has denied responsibility.
But the attack has fanned long-held fears that Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza could spiral into a wider regional conflict.
The US is trying to talk Israel out of a retaliatory strike against Lebanese capital Beirut, Reuters reported Monday.
Like Venezuelans, the Lebanese have used crypto to survive an economy suffering from hyperinflation.
In Lebanon, wealthy individuals use stablecoin brokers to move their money around, DL News reported last year. The brokers, in turn, use USDT on Tron.
In a conversation heard by DL News, a top-tier supplier of USDT told Nader Dirany, co-founder of OTC exchange Buy Bitcoin Lebanon, that he was processing about $20 million in transactions every month.
The dealer, who wanted to remain anonymous, said eight to 10 other individuals were handling similar volumes.
Aleks Gilbert is DL News’ New York-based DeFi correspondent. You can contact him at aleks@dlnews.com.
