- Bitcoin has come tantalisingly close to $100,000 following Donald Trump’s election.
- Massive profit-taking has stalled Bitcoin’s march to the milestone price.
- Here’s when traders expect Bitcoin to cross $100,000.
Bitcoin’s $100,000 cliffhanger remains unresolved.
Despite rallying 45% to reach $99,600 since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election on November 5, Bitcoin has been unable to cross the six-figure milestone.
However, analysts expect it’s only a matter of time as traders have a lot of money riding on it happening before the end of 2024. On Polymarket, a bet that Bitcoin will pass the six-figure mark before the end of the year put the odds at 82% and is worth $4.5 million.
On crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, a combined notional value of almost $900,000 have been put into calls that Bitcoin will trade at $100,000 on December 27, the last expiration of the year. The notional value is a metric that determines the value of a trade.
Those trades echo predictions by UK bank Standard Chartered that Bitcoin will hit $125,000 before the end of 2024.
But the journey there is not straightforward, market watchers say.
“We expect both the bull run and volatility in Bitcoin to continue for the rest of the year [and] a range of $75,000 to $120,000 would not be surprising,” Ed Hindi, chief investment officer at Swiss-based digital assets hedge fund Tyr Capital, told DL News.
Profit-taking
One reason for the wobble is that Bitcoin holders could decide to sell their assets, which may delay the march to $100,000.
“It is quite likely that the Bitcoin rally will take a break in the short term as sentiment remains elevated and positioning appears somewhat stretched,” Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, told DL News.
The ongoing profit-taking hasn’t dampened bullish expectations for Bitcoin and market data indicates traders expect the milestone moment to happen early next year at the latest.
Bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that expire on March 28, the last trading day for Q1 2025, are priced at $103,065.
That suggests traders expect Bitcoin to trade above the $100,000 milestone early next year.
Meanwhile, CME Bitcoin futures expiring on December 27, this year’s last trading day, are priced at $99,600 ― a 1.2% premium to Bitcoin’s current spot price but still shy of the milestone mark.
With CME Bitcoin futures often used as a proxy to gauge institutional interest, market data might suggest big-money traders also expect significant volatility for Bitcoin this year, enough to prevent it from crossing $100,000 before the closeout of 2024.
Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. To share tips or information about stories, please contact him at osato@dlnews.com.
