- Trump's tariffs are shaking global markets.
- Crypto has fallen on the back of the new policies.
- So why does industry pundits remain confident?
A version of this story appeared in our The Roundup newsletter on April 4. Sign up here.
Things are about to get worse.
US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on global trading partners, as well as an island of penguins, could pump inflation by 1.5% and kneecap consumers’ spending power, JPMorgan wrote on Wednesday.
“This impact alone could take the economy perilously close to slipping into recession,” the analysts wrote.
A prediction market on crypto-betting platform Polymarket backs that estimate by putting a 52% chance of a recession in 2025.
For crypto, the tariffs are expected to disrupt miners, hardware wallet providers, and the global liquidity supply of the market.
It’s already taken a toll on riskier assets.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is down 5.3% since Wednesday. The crypto market lost $85 billion of its value during the same period, a 3% decline. Bitcoin shed some 3% of its price in the same period.
Surprisingly, crypto market watchers are bullish.
“Bitcoin prices will rocket in the long term,” Zach Burks, CEO of NFT platform Mintology, told Osato Avan-Nomayo.
Arthur Hayes, the recently pardoned BitMEX co-founder, also argued that the Federal Reserve will be forced to step up to provide liquidity or risk seeing the US economy fare even worse.
Indeed, the CME FedWatch tool now gives it a 48% chance that the US central bank will cut interest rates as early as May. Previous expectations saw cuts happening later in the year.
Rate cuts are usually good for assets like cryptocurrencies and tech stocks.
Where does that leave Bitcoin? To Hayes, the top cryptocurrency will hit $250,000 by year-end. UK bank Standard Chartered similarly held on to its prediction that Bitcoin will hit $500,000 before Trump leaves office.
Bettors on Kalshi aren’t as bullish. They only give Bitcoin a 39% chance of hitting prices above $125,000 this year.
What market crash? Crypto VCs and CEOs see boom times ahead
It’s going to take a lot more than Trump’s tariff war to dampen the joie de vivre of the crypto industry, reports Pedro Solimano. Check out report on the bullish signs in the market.
Ripple says it wants new UK crypto laws. ‘We’re not asking to be unregulated’
Ripple is urging the UK government to hurry up and introduce new crypto laws or risk other jurisdictions bagging the windfalls of the industry.
BlackRock wins nod to become crypto asset firm in the UK
Investment giant BlackRock’s latest move cements its role as a big crypto player.
Post of the Week
Trump was mocked after putting a 10% tariff on the Heard and McDonald islands, which are part of Australia’s external territories but are uninhabited, save for penguins, seals and other wildlife.
“Nowhere on Earth is safe,” Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese quipped on Thursday.
“But guys, we don’t even trade with your country”
— litquidity (@litcapital) April 3, 2025
“Shut the fuck up penguin. Did you even say thank you? We’re tired of you taking advantage of hard working American patriots” pic.twitter.com/FLi1B1k8rH
