- Bitcoin fell nearly 4% over the weekend after the US and Iran failed to reach a deal.
- Options data shows traders are bracing for more downside, analysts say.
- Four big economic data releases will steer global central banks’ meetings later in April.
Bitcoin traders are positioning for falling prices, according to Maxime Seiler, CEO of crypto trading firm STS Digital.
The higher demand for put options — meaning investors are paying for downside protection while selling off upside bets — signals fear, Seiler said in a note shared with DL News.
“Puts are trading at a significant premium to calls across the board,” Seiler wrote.
The bearish signal comes as Bitcoin trades just above $70,000 after falling nearly 4% over the weekend amid President Donald Trump’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, oil surged back above $100 a barrel after US Central Command said the Navy will block all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports starting Monday at 10am ET.
High oil prices means higher inflation — something that central bankers around the world will weigh heavily as they meet later in April. The prices of risky assets like Bitcoin are heavily dependent on these institutions' policies because they determine the amount of money in the financial system.
“The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain center stage this week,” said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni research.
Here are four other critical events to watch this week, according to Yardeni.
Inflation pressure
Tuesday’s March Producer Price Index looms large. Headline and core PPI are expected to rise to 4.0% year-on-year, extending a heating trend that began even before the war intensified.
Energy sits at the heart of this shift. A US blockade of Hormuz pushes oil prices higher at the start of the week, feeding directly into producer costs. Rising price indexes already signal mounting inflation pressure over the next six months.
For Bitcoin, that matters. Persistent inflation keeps the Federal Reserve cautious. A cautious Fed keeps interest rates elevated — and higher rates dampen investors’ risk appetite.
Industry numbers
Wednesday’s industrial production data will offer a read on manufacturing momentum. Output has been trending higher since early 2025, especially in information technology hardware and defense.
War-driven demand often lifts defense production even as other sectors wobble, Yardeni said. That creates a strange mix: solid output numbers alongside rising geopolitical risk.
Markets read that as inflationary rather than stimulative, Yardeni argues. For Bitcoin’s price, stronger production tied to defense spending does little to ease concerns about tightening financial conditions.
Labour market
The US labour market remains resilient. Initial jobless claims ticked up to 219,000 for the week of April 3, while continuing claims fell to 1.8 million. The energy shock has not yet dented hiring in a meaningful way.
Thursday’s claims data will confirm whether cracks are forming. A strong jobs market paired with rising energy prices would be seen as a negative for crypto prices. A weaker report means the Fed could slash interest rates sooner to stimulate the economy — thus boosting prices.
Fed signals
Regional Fed surveys from New York and Philadelphia will deliver the first forward-looking snapshots of business sentiment since the blockade threat. These surveys are volatile but closely watched.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will also reveal how smaller firms are reacting. It stood at 98.8 in February, just above its long-run average. Energy shocks have crushed small-business confidence before. They are poised to do so again.
Meanwhile, investors will parse comments from Federal Reserve officials before the Open Market Committee on April 28-29.
Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at lance@dlnews.com
