- There's less certainty around Ether and SOL, says UK bank analyst.
- Both Trump and Harris have shifted their approach to crypto.
- This is another sign Bitcoin's risk to political volatility is decreasing.
First the good news.
The price of Bitcoin will probably triple to $200,000 by the end of 2025 no matter who wins the US presidential election, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank.
However, things do not look as rosy for the second and third biggest cryptocurrencies in the world — Ethereum and Solana.
“Broadly speaking, we think a Trump administration would be more supportive of the broader digital assets ecosystem than a Harris administration,” Kendrick wrote in a research note published on Tuesday.
The research note came 28 days before the US election.
Many investors expect the election to determine whether US regulators will maintain their crackdown on the crypto industry, or whether a new era dawns for an asset class that may need its own bespoke rules.
The industry has poured $174 million into lobbying efforts to support crypto-friendly candidates.
Trump vs. Harris
Even though the UK bank sees Bitcoin rising no matter what, it did draw distinctions between Trump, the former president and Republican nominee, and Vice President Harris.
If Trump wins, Kendrick said he expected Ether to jump some 300% to $10,000 by the end of next year. A win by Harris would see a less dramatic rise to $7,000, he predicted.
While Kendrick said SOL was more likely to surge up to 400% by the end of 2025 if Trump wins, and told DL News he expected Solana’s token to surge about 100% under a Harris administration.
Solana in play
Kendrick said the approval of a spot Solana exchange-traded fund — akin to Bitcoin and Ethereum funds launched this year — was more likely in 2025 under a Trump White House than under Harris.
So, too, would be appointing a replacement for Gary Gensler, the hard charging chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Trump has also mused about creating a Bitcoin reserve, though he has not provided any details on how it would be funded or work.
Harris has signalled that she will take a less aggressive approach to digital assets than President Joe Biden, but she has yet to make any detailed proposals.
Harris did place blockchain technology alongside quantum computing and AI as a key source of innovation and economic growth. But crypto supporters have remained sceptical given the Biden Administration’s many enforcement actions, and dismissed her position as “hollow words.”
The state of play has spurred the “Trump Trade,” a bet that Bitcoin will surge if he wins.
For instance, Bernstein said that Bitcoin will reach a record high of $90,000 in the short term if Trump wins and fall as low as $40,000 if he loses.
In the long run, however, “Bitcoin will do well in either outcome,” the Wall Street research firm’s analysts wrote in a Wednesday note.
Other assets like Ethereum and Solana “will remain range bound until elections and will take a decisive direction only post elections, when there is more clarity on the SEC chair and the caste of regulatory aides within the White House,” the researchers continued.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is down 0.6% over the past 24 hours to trade at $61,940.
- Ethereum is up 0.3% to trade at $2,430.
What we’re reading
- HBO doc identifies Peter Todd as Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto — DL News
- Coinbase Activates Bitcoin Taproot Transfers — Unchained
- Former Bitcoin developer points out missing detail undermining HBO’s claim that Peter Todd is Satoshi — The Block
- Investment Firms Pantera Capital and Spartan Group Scoop Up Aerodrome’s AERO Token — Unchained
- Coinbase says unmasking Satoshi is a risk. Why naming Bitcoin’s creator no longer matters — DL News
Update: This story has been updated to include Kendrick’s prediction about Solana’s price under a Harris administration.
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.
