- Solana token has rallied 350% in the past year, thanks in part to several large token airdrops.
- A network outage on February 6 did little to stem Solana’s rise, with a 20% gain since.
- Analysts and experts share what will drive Solana in 2024.
It’s had a few wobbles lately, but Solana is up 390% over the past year.
Its $4.9 billion NFT market has been closing in on rival Ethereum in terms of trading volume.
And despite some glitches, including an hours-long network outage on February 6, its SOL token has bounced back.
But Solana has failed to keep pace with soaring prices of Ethereum and Bitcoin, remaining relatively flat since the post-outage rally at $103.
Here are five analysts’ takes on what’s up with Solana.
CoinShares’ Max Shannon
“Solana is still the crypto darling,” even given the hit it took after the outage in early February, CoinShares analyst Max Shannon told DL News.
Shannon said bullish Bitcoin sentiment doesn’t hurt, either.
Crypto prices have generally gained in 2024, after the US Securities and Exchange commission approved almost a dozen spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. In just over a month, the new ETFs have accrued record inflows.
Shannon joins other analysts in pointing to several successful airdrops; independent validators including Firedancer that will “improve redundancy of the network” and help to prevent future outages; and a hopeful Bitcoin market as reasons Solana’s rise will continue.
In a Monday blog post, Shannon pointed to Solana’s developing onchain order book system as a potential blow to dominant Ethereum.
According to Shannon, the new order book capability will provide better user experiences, better protocol capital efficiency, and enhanced transparency compared to rival Ethereum’s “hybrid or off-chain” order books, leading to a “vastly [improved] user experience.”
Messari’s Kel Eleje
When it comes to Solana’s several outages, the most recent of which occurred earlier this month, investors are forgiving.
Solana’s token dropped 4% on the news, then rallied to trade above $110.
“It’s an early stage network, outages should be expected,” Messari analyst Kel Eleje told DL News.
He pointed to an overall decrease in outages since Solana’s launch, and a marked increase in network speed.
Solana’s transactions per second have increased nearly five times since 2021, from 200 to 900 — far faster than Ethereum’s 12 transactions per second, or Bitcoin’s seven.
“The trend is favourable,” Eleje said.
According to Eleje, growth will be encouraged by Solana-native “breakout applications” such as NFT drop platform DRiP and decentralised wireless network project Helium, which has recently migrated to Solana.
Helium has also partnered with Solana’s Saga mobile device. Saga owners have received periodic free airdrops such as BONK in December.
Solana users also look forward to more of the airdrops that drove growth in late 2023.
Eleje pointed to new, release-ready clients such as Firedancer, Sig, and Agave, which aim to increase network scalability.
1/ Scalability is a key factor in the crypto space, with the modular approach gaining popularity. However, @Solana has taken a contrarian stance.@kelxyz_ explains how @jump_firedancer, a validator client developed by @jump_ aims to enhance Solana's monolithic approach.🧵 pic.twitter.com/zRc3Q5wSeT
— Messari (@MessariCrypto) June 6, 2023
Real Vision’s Raoul Pal
Entrepreneur Raoul Pal sees Solana going much higher.
Pal is the co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, a financial research platform, and has a million followers on X.
In an interview this month with SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, Pal said Solana will rise to between $750 and $1,000, and will wind up the third place token in crypto, behind Bitcoin and Ethereum.
“It’s the relative outperformer,” compared to the other two cryptocurrencies, he said.
VanEck
In October, ETF provider VanEck gave a valuation scenario that saw Solana go as high as $3,211.28 or as low as $10 by the year 2030.
VanEck’s so-called base case for Solana is $335, based on estimated cash flows to token holders. That’s triple its current price.
But the firm said that number could be much bigger if, in that time, it managed to pull ahead of rival Ethereum to become the leading DeFi chain.
VanEck said, however, that ”Solana’s likelihood of hosting the majority of the world’s crypto transactions by 2030 is lower than Ethereum’s.”
The firm still pointed to room to grow for the network, with promising adoption by new developers and venture capitalists.
“A meaningful weight for SOL in investor portfolios is justified.”
Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell
Despite its rally, Solana isn’t even halfway to its 2021 all-time high high of $260.
At that time, Solana was dubbed a “Sam coin,” a reference to convicted FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried, who backed Solana and Solana projects. The FTX crash of 2022 saw Solana’s price drop 97%, making it one of the worst-hit assets of the bear market.
Its price has climbed a whopping 1,065% since then. To reach all-time highs, it will need to jump about 130% from its current price.
Fundstrat Global Advisors analyst Sean Farrell kept it simple.
“We see new all-time highs this year,” he told DL News.
Today, Solana hovers at about $109.
Tyler Pearson is a markets correspondent at DL News. He is based out of Alberta, Canada. Got a tip? Reach out to him at ty@dlnews.com.
