- Bitcoin fell below $54,000 on Friday.
- A Donald Trump win will change its fortunes, Bernstein says.
- But some have cast doubt on the “Trump trade” narrative.
Crypto prices are wobbling ahead of Tuesday’s debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Bitcoin dove below $54,000 before the weekend and now hovers at around $55,000. Bernstein analysts argue that the outcome of the November vote will determine whether the world’s leading cryptocurrency surges to new heights or sinks further.
If Trump wins, Bitcoin will “reach close to $80,000-90,000 range,” Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia wrote in a Monday note. If Harris wins, Bitcoin will fall to as low as $30,000, they said.
The way Bernstein puts it, crypto’s future rides on the election. But some aren’t so sure. Uncertainty around the election outcome, combined with outsized economic drivers ahead of election day on November 5, have upended the Bitcoin “Trump trade” narrative outlined by Bernstein.
“That ambiguity is making people weigh other factors that influence Bitcoin’s price, like growth, recession concerns, the Federal Reserve, and liquidity in the system,” said Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital. He spoke to DL News last month.
Industry heavyweights have elbowed into this election cycle like never before. They’ve ploughed hundreds of millions into their lobbying efforts, hopping to sway political power brokers to get sector-friendly policies onto the senate floor.
Since officially embracing crypto in May, Trump has pledged to create a national Bitcoin stockpile, free Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, and fire Gary Gensler, the Securities and Exchange Commission chair who has cracked down on the industry.
Harris has not yet made her views on crypto known. Yet, her campaign has promised to reset relationships with the industry.
Several industry reps — such as Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, and multi-billionaire Mark Cuban — have thrown their support behind Harris.
While gamblers on crypto betting site Polymarket put the odds of Trump winning at 52% and Harris’ chances at 47%, Project 538′s aggregated average of national polls give Harris a 3% lead over Trump.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin has rallied 1.4% over the past 24 hours to $54,945.
- Ethereum has rise 0.5% over the same period to $2,283.
What we are reading
- Why FalconX exec sees Hong Kong crypto ETFs surging to $1b in assets despite slow start — DL News
- Rune Christensen Defends Sky’s Freeze Function Amid Decentralization Concerns — Milk Road
- The Risks of Using Telegram for Crypto Users — Unchained
- CZ Banned From Managing Binance For Life: Major Shift for Crypto Exchange — Milk Road
- Arthur Hayes does turnaround on Bitcoin with short and $50,000 target — DL News
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.
