- The XRP ETF bet on Polymarket surged on Tuesday.
- Coinbase has launched a regulated XRP futures product.
- Analysts warn of weak demand for altcoin ETFs.
Crypto bettors on Polymarket are twitching about the prospects of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund in the US.
On Tuesday, Polymarket punters put the chances of the Securities and Exchange Commission approving an XRP ETF this year at 79% ― a 9% uptick in the 24 hours since Coinbase launched a futures product for the Ripple-linked cryptocurrency.
With the Coinbase launch, XRP now boasts a regulated derivatives market in the US.
That’s significant because the SEC under former Chair Gary Gensler repeatedly cited the absence of a regulated futures market as a red flag for market manipulation when denying previous altcoin ETF applications.
The XRP futures product on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s ledger, means that the SEC’s go-to excuse for denying altcoin ETFs, at least for XRP, might just have gotten body-checked.
Add to that the SEC’s new pro-crypto Chair Paul Atkins officially took the helm this week, and it seems like the red flag might be looking a little pink.
The SEC is reviewing five XRP ETF applications and has until mid-October to decide.
But that’s not all.
The agency is knee-deep in altcoin ETF filings.
There are 72 crypto-related ETF applications sitting in the regulatory queue. The flurry of crypto ETF filings has come amid a major shift in regulatory policies for the industry in the US.
“Gonna be a wild year,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas tweeted on Monday regarding the sheer volume of pending crypto ETF applications piling up at the SEC.
Still, regulatory scepticisms shadow several of the tokens linked to these ETF applications. That means the first one to land might rewrite the rules of engagement and possibly legitimise the cryptocurrencies.
The SEC approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last year, and both recorded contrasting performances.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs amassed $107 billion in one year, becoming the most successful ETF launch in history, while Ethereum funds stuttered.
Even with the potential arrival of altcoin ETFs, Balchunas doesn’t expect Bitcoin to be knocked off its perch.
Balchunas said altcoin ETFs would only make a minor dent.
Still, market analysts are expecting significant demand for XRP ETFs.
JPMorgan analysts predicted XRP ETFs could attract up to $8 billion in investor flows within a year but warned of weak demand for altcoin ETFs in general.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is up 1.5% over the past 24 hours to trade at $88,189.
- Ethereum traded flatly over the same period at $1,583.
What we’re reading
- Strategy almost doubles last Bitcoin haul with $555m purchase — DL News
- BTC is missing 1 vital ingredient — Milk Road
- Newly Revealed Crypto Majors Solana, Yuga Labs, and Uniswap’s Hayden Adams Gave to Trump’s Inauguration — Unchained
- Bitcoin’s ‘Pet Rock’ problem — Milk Road
- If Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity is in a government file Bitcoin advocates want it closed forever — DL News
Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. To share tips or information about stories, please contact him at osato@dlnews.com.
