- Crypto bettors put the odds of an XRP ETF at almost 80%.
- XRP ETF is among one of several altcoin ETF filings with the SEC.
- Analysts ponder if regulatory troubles will prevent approval.
Spot XRP exchange-traded funds stand to see up to $800 million in inflows in their first week of trading — if they get approved.
That’s according to Luca Sorlini, head of products at virtual asset service provider Northstake, who extrapolated the figure by looking at the flows seen in spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
A “reasonable range would be between $400 million and $800 million in the first week,” Sorlini said.
“This would depend on factors such as institutional interest, overall market conditions, and the number of competing XRP ETFs launching simultaneously.”
Gabe Selby, research head at crypto index provider CF Benchmarks, offered DL News a similar prediction, saying “first-month flows into the nine-figures is possible.”
JPMorgan estimated in a January note that XRP ETFs may gather between $4 billion and $8 billion in net new assets during their first six to 12 months.
The estimates come as the buzz around spot XRP ETFs reached a fever pitch over the weekend after the Securities and Exchange Commission acknowledged Grayscale and 21Shares’ applications to launch such investment vehicles.
Acknowledgement does not equate to approval, but market watchers said it was a good sign as previous filings have been told to withdraw almost immediately.
The acknowledgments triggered the price to surge 16%. XRP has since retraced somewhat amid a broader crypto market slump.
Those filings are part of a flurry of altcoin ETF filings to flood the regulator in the wake of President Donald Trump’s promise to relax crypto rules.
Good signs
Market watchers are optimistic that the SEC will approve XRP ETFs.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart put the odds of an SEC nod at 65%. A bet on prediction market Polymarket gives a 2025 green light a 78% chance.
Trump’s pro-crypto stance is a driving factor behind those estimates. Through a string of executive orders, pardons and key role nominations, he has paved the way to end the US government’s crypto crackdown.
Many also say they expect the new administration to end Ripple’s long-running legal dispute with the SEC — especially with crypto critic and former Chair Gary Gensler leaving the watchdog in January.
In December 2020, the agency sued Ripple for allegedly violating US securities laws when the company sold XRP to institutional investors. A judge ruled last year that XRP was not a security.
The SEC appealed the resolution.
If an XRP ETF is approved, market analysts expect the crypto’s price to soar.
“This is likely to result in a surge in price if prior examples of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals are to be taken into account,” Jacob Joseph, senior research analyst at crypto data provider CCData, told DL News.
Bitcoin soared 150% last year after the SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.
Hurdles
Analysts cautioned that an approval is not set in stone.
During Gensler’s reign, the SEC argued against listing spot crypto ETFs unless they were traded on highly correlated, regulated futures markets for the corresponding asset.
Both the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs had futures markets on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange before the approval of their spot ETFs
No such markets exist for XRP, but Selby said regulators could change that.
“A potential adjustment might involve evaluating whether the asset is traded in significant volume on an exchange that meets a high standard of market integrity and data reporting,” Selby said.
It is also unclear whether the ongoing legal dispute with the SEC will halt an approval. Yet, this may change.
“The SEC’s stance on crypto and approach to the regulation of digital assets has evolved, resulting in a more favorable regulatory environment,” Sorlini said.
Will the SEC approve a single one first or a slew of XRP ETFs at the same time — as it did when it approved Bitcoin ETFs — to avoid being seen as a kingmaker?
“Totally different SEC now, so can’t say,” Adam Morgan McCarthy, analyst at Kaiko, told DL News.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is down 0.9% over the past 24 hours to reach $94,715.
- Ethereum has fallen 3.4% over the same period to $2,636.
What we’re reading
- We’re in red-alert bubble territory. But this time, there’s a crypto contagion risk ― DL News
- What you missed this week ― Milk Road
- Will XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETFs Leave Investors Out in the Cold? ― Unchained
- The biggest rug pull in history? ― Milk Road
- These experts say a Bitcoin rally is imminent as price seen topping $200,000 ― DL News
Update February 18: This story has been updated to clarify that JPMorgan’s estimates are between a six to 12-month period.
Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. Got a tip? Please contact him at osato@dlnews.com.
