- Bitcoin’s price has become an indicator for how the political winds are blowing.
- Analysts say the so-called “Trump trade” will see Bitcoin surge to $100,000.
- However, others say other factors play an even bigger role for cryptocurrencies’ fortunes.
Bitcoin fell almost 3% after Donald Trump launched into a bizarre rant about immigrants allegedly eating people’s pets during Tuesday’s presidential debate.
It’s the latest indication of how Bitcoin is intimately linked to Trump’s odds of becoming the president.
When his victory against President Joe Biden looked certain this Summer, the cryptocurrency traded at almost $69,000. However, the price crashed by 2.3% when Biden bowed out of the race.
It fell “because there’s a higher chance of his replacement defeating Trump in November — that is less favourable for crypto overall,” crypto analyst Noelle Acheson tweeted at the time.
Bitcoin has trembled at the $60,000 mark since Biden bowed out, seemingly falling in tandem with Vice President Kamala Harris obliterating Trump’s lead in the polls.
Polls, Polymarket, PredictIt, and a flurry of other sources are helping investors choose which assets to pile into ahead of the November 5 election. But the rise and fall of Bitcoin provides yet another crystal ball of sorts.
If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach as high as $90,000 at the end of 2025, Bernstein analysts wrote in a Monday note. If Harris wins, Bitcoin will fall to as low as $30,000.
Some, like Acheson, have suggested that Bitcoin’s price may rise to $100,000 this year. Others suggest that other factors impact the price more than the election.
The debate around the “Trump trade” highlights how — at least for the industry — crypto has taken centre stage in this year’s election.
The Trump trade
Trump famously called Bitcoin “a scam” in 2021. However, in May, he came out swinging for the industry.
Trump has pledged to create a US Bitcoin reserve, free Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, and fire the Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who has spearheaded the US government’s regulatory crypto crackdown.
“The upside is larger for digital assets under a Trump presidency, which might foster a more favourable regulatory environment,” Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, wrote in an investor note on Wednesday.
Harris has not spoken about crypto publicly. Some industry watchers view her as a continuation of the Biden Administration, which has been hostile towards crypto.
Does it matter?
In her Wednesday newsletter, Acheson noted the dip during the debate. However, she said she was surprised that “crypto hasn’t been doing worse.” While crypto’s Stateside future remains uncertain, the small wobble suggested to her that a Democratic victory is already priced in.
BitMEX founder and renowned crypto trader Arthur Hayes told DL News in August that it doesn’t matter who sits in the Oval Office.
“You can say all these nice things and try all these policies, but if the entire government organisation is opposed to them, then nothing gets done.”
It’s not just election uncertainty that has crypto markets on edge.
The Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month and recession concerns will play a key role in what’s next for Bitcoin, Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told DL News last month.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is up 1.7% in the past day and trades at $57,800.
- Ethereum shed 0.2% overnight and is worth $2,300.
What we are reading
- Trading app eToro to stop most crypto trading in the US in settlement with SEC — DL News
- Solo Bitcoin Miner Strikes Gold with $181K Block Reward — Milk Road
- What Do Cooling Inflation and Rate Cuts Mean for Crypto and Bitcoin Prices? — Unchained
- Indonesian Crypto Exchange Indodax Shuts Down Amid $22M Hack — Milk Road
- Anchorage takes on Coinbase in $60bn Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF custody game — DL News
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.
