- Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts.
- Crypto punters says there's a 17% chance he goes to prison by November.
After a jury issued Donald Trump with a guilty verdict on 34 felony counts in his hush-money trial, crypto punters placed bets on whether or not he’ll be in jail before the November election.
A bet on blockchain-based betting site Polymarket — called “Trump in jail before election day?” — now has almost $897,000 on the line.
The odds?
Bettors say there’s a 17% chance that the presumptive Republican presidential nominee will end up in the slammer before November 5.
That’s a slight decline from earlier in May when bettors put the odds at 25%.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a prediction market.
It enables people to place binary bets on just about anything — from whether or not singer Kate Perry will launch a memecoin to if 2024 will be the warmest year on record.
The idea is that experts from around the internet can put that expertise to use, be it the approval of a crypto fund or whether lost submarines will be found.
Polymarket bettors have a track record in cases like this.
They accurately predicted the length of Changpeng Zhao’s prison sentence after the Binance co-founder pleaded guilty to violating US money laundering laws, as well as the verdict in the criminal trial against FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.
In the hush-money case, Polymarket bettors had put the odds of a guilty verdict at 78%.
What is the hush-money trial?
Prosecutors accused Trump of falsifying business records in connection with hush-money payments made to retired porn star Stormy Daniels.
According to Daniels, she and Trump had an affair in 2006. Trump has denied that.
In the days before the 2016 election, Michael Cohen, then one of Trump’s attorneys, allegedly paid Daniels $130,000 to buy her silence.
Trump, in turn, repaid Cohen.
That’s where his legal troubles start: According to prosecutors, Trump deliberately — and illegally — labelled the payments as “legal expenses” in an effort to conceal his motives.
Trump faces probation or up to four years in prison, according to the New York Times.
However, he will likely not go to prison until his appeals are exhausted, Axios noted.
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email him at eric@dlnews.com.
