- Canada is heading to the polls on April 28.
- The election will pit a CBDC supporter against a Bitcoin backer.
- Donald Trump is likely to be the decisive issue in the vote.
The race is on.
Freshly minted Canadian prime minister and crypto sceptic Mark Carney has called for a snap election that will see him face off against Conservative Party leader and long-time Bitcoin backer Pierre Poilievre.
Poilievre’s election win looked certain just two months ago. But Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada and slap new tariffs on the country have helped swing the odds in Carney’s favour, according to prediction market bets and polls.
The key deciding factor? Who can present himself as Canada’s best defender against Trump’s trade war.
“President Trump claims that Canada isn’t a real country,” Carney said. “He wants to break us so America can own us. We will not let that happen. We’re over the shock of the betrayal; but we should never forget the lessons.”
Poilievre has similarly distanced himself from the US president, saying it’s “time to put Canada first for a change,” and to “stand up to Trump from a position of strength.”
The election will be held on April 28.
It will pit Carney, who previously led both the Bank of England and Canada’s central bank, against career politician Poilievre.
Carney leapfrogs Poilievre
Two months ago, the election seemed a foregone conclusion.
Poilievre had a comfortable lead in the polls, and also enjoyed a 90% chance of winning the election, according to wagers on crypto-backed prediction market Polymarket and its rival Kalshi.
However, Trump’s aggressive and unpredictable foreign policies — a “psychodrama,” as Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly called it — have kneecaped Poilievre’s chances.
Poilievre now has a 49% chance of winning against Carney’s 51%, according to Polymarket bettors. Kalshi put the odds of a Conservative Party win at 47%, and the Liberal Party’s chances at 54%.
The Economist’s latest polling averages give Carney a 39% chance of winning and Poilievre a 37% chance.
The Trump effect
Trump has emerged as a key deciding factor in the election, which has given Carney a boost.
A majority of voters, or 55%, say his Liberal Party will be best suited to handle the trade war between Canada and the US, while 30% said the same about the Conservatives, according to a mid-March poll from the Angus Reid Institute.
“It is impossible to overstate the impact of the president’s actions on Canadian politics, on Canadian psyche, on Canadian business,” Marci Surkes, chief strategy officer at public affairs firm Compass Rose, told the BBC.
Crypto views
Crypto is unlikely to be a deciding factor, with issues like the economy, healthcare, and defence spending on top of voters’ minds.
Yet, Poilievre’s stance as a long-time Bitcoin advocate, his pledge to make Canada the “blockchain capital of the world,” and opposition to central bank digital currencies have drawn comparisons with Trump, who secured the White House on a pro-crypto platform.
Carney, on the other hand, has backed the creation of CBDCs and has voiced scepticism of Bitcoin, dismissing it as a poor store of value.
He has, however, remained relatively silent on these issues in recent years, so it’s unclear if he’s changed his position.
It wouldn’t be the first time a politician flip-flopped on crypto.
After all, Trump dismissed Bitcoin as “a scam against the dollar” in 2021.
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.
