How Trump risks dragging Bitcoin to $80,000

A version of this story appeared in our The Roundup newsletter on January 17. Sign up here.

Hi! Eric here.

The countdown has started.

On Monday, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States — and crypto pundits couldn’t be more excited, saying it will trigger a “golden age of crypto.”

They have reason to be bullish. Trump’s pro-industry pledges during the campaign helped shore up the crypto vote amid aims to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet.”

The expectation that he’ll deliver triggered the post-election rally that saw Bitcoin hit $108,000 in December. Analysts predict Trump’s policies will catapult the leading crypto to $250,000 before the end of 2025.

But what if he doesn’t follow through?

What if — after all his bloviation of the importance of protecting self-custody, creating a national Bitcoin reserve, and killing anti-crypto crackdowns — Trump shelves crypto for more pressing policy goals?

Bettors on prediction market Polymarket put the odds at 29% that the Donald will mention crypto during his inauguration speech.

If Trump fails to quickly deliver on his campaign’s promises, Bitcoin will slide to as low as $80,000, Standard Chartered warned this week.

As Pedro Solimano reported, Standard Chartered made the case that while Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and big buyers like MicroStrategy are bullish for the price, a drop below $90,000 could trigger a wave of panic selling.

To be sure, Trump’s already moved to assuage some of those fears. Several of his nominations for key roles in his government — such as Tether-backer Howard Lutnick, and crypto trade group operator Paul Atkins — have a pro-crypto track record.

So are you ready for this?

The future starts slow in three, two, one…

Meet the activist pushing Big Tech to copy MicroStrategy and embrace Bitcoin

Ethan Peck has been trying to convince the likes of Meta and Microsoft to start holding Bitcoin. Liam Kelly asked him why.

Outrage mounts as Dogwifhat influencers sit on $700,000 meant for Las Vegas Sphere stunt

Speaking of keeping promises: DeFi’s still waiting on influencers who raised $700,000 for a PR stunt of the ages to deliver on their pledges.

UK judge ends 11-year quest for $760m Bitcoin stash buried in trash heap

A court ruled that James Howells cannot excavate a 350,000 tonne municipal landfill in Wales that he says contains a hard drive containing the private keys to his long-lost stash of Bitcoin.

Post of the week

Memecoin platform Pump.fun is not having a great time of late.

It was forced to remove a controversial live-streaming feature from its website after some memecoin creators began performing shocking live stunts in order to promote their tokens. Then a UK watchdog banned the platform.

This year has so far failed to provide a fresh start for Pump.fun: This week it faced a class action lawsuit from investors.