- Since August 2, Kamala Harris’ odds of winning the election have risen 238%.
- Analysts warn that a Donald Trump loss will be bad for crypto prices.
Just as Kamala Harris takes the lead over Donald Trump in various polls, including on crypto-powered betting platform Polymarket, the price of Bitcoin has weakened.
Bernstein analysts don’t think it’s a coincidence.
“Our interpretation of current market sentiment is that a Trump win is bullish, and Harris win is bearish (at least in terms of the immediate market reaction),” read a new report.
Since the current US vice president was nominated to run on August 4, Bitcoin has lost 3%.
Over that period, the largest cryptocurrency also fell below $50,000 during a swift market crash spurred on by the unwinding of the so-called yen carry trade.
It’s yet to return to its all-time high of $73,700 in March.
“The rising shares of Harris on Polymarkets has made the crypto markets nervous, with Bitcoin being range bound and unable to reclaim its previous June highs of” roughly $70,000, write Bernstein analysts.
The crypto election
This year’s presidential election is the first time crypto has become a key talking point in a major vote.
Trump’s pro-Bitcoin messaging on the campaign trail — hinting at a national Bitcoin treasury, courting miners, and even promising to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler if he wins — has paid off.
Crypto heavyweights like Messari co-founder Ryan Selkis have come out swinging for him.
During a keynote speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, Trump said his campaign had raised roughly $25 million from the crypto community.
While Harris has not taken a public stance on crypto, her campaign recently added two key advisers who formerly worked in the industry.
David Plouffe, also an advisor to former President Barack Obama, was on crypto exchange Binance’s global advisory board.
Brian Nelson worked at the Treasury Department’s Office for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence.
During his time there, the Treasury Department brought enforcement actions against Binance for breaking sanctions and anti-money laundering laws.
Members of the crypto community — including Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci — are also rallying behind her.
The group called Crypto4Harris says it’s “organising to back Harris while pushing for a nuanced policy stance that positions America as a leader in digital assets.”
It will host a digital town hall on August 16.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is down 1.2% over the past 24 hours to trade at $59,892.
- Ethereum is up 0.8% to trade at $2,677.
What we are reading
- Crypto startups get small bump, $2.7bn funding in second quarter, study says — DL News
- Ethereum User Spends $88,000 to Send $2,200 ETH — Unchained
- SEC Pushes Back On Coinbase’s Document Request — Milk Road
- MakerDAO Considers Offboarding WBTC as BitGo Plans Custody Changes — Unchained
- Tennessee man charged in North Korean remote worker fraud — DL News
Liam Kelly is a DeFi Correspondent for DL News. Got a tip? Email at liam@dlnews.com.
