- The launch of spot Ethereum ETFs are expected any day now.
- Some market watchers expect the price to surge to $7,000.
- Others are more cautious.
The launch of Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds is imminent.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas said on Tuesday that issuer VankEck’s 8-A form submission was “good sign” for a July 2 launch date.
Industry executives told Reuters that the ETFs could launch before July 4.
As excitement builds, demand for futures bets on Ether via the Chicago Mercantile Exchange surged 105% to $1.32 billion — close to the exchange’s all-time high Ether open interest of $1.35 billion.
But what do the experts say? We found out.
Lekker Capital’s Quinn Thompson
The way Quinn Thompson sees it, being bearish has never been so cool amongst crypto investors as it is now — and that’s bullish.
In a Wednesday X post, Thompson forecasted a period of calm as sellers tire before a “slap in the face” type moment shows them their outlook is too bearish.
That could look like positive spot Ethereum ETF flows upon launch, or even something as simple as competition among ETF issuers to offer the lowest fees, he said.
VanEck has already said it won’t charge a fee for its spot Ethereum ETF.
Thompson finished with a bold price prediction: “Ether will reach $7,000 and Bitcoin will make its first attempt at $100,000 by the election in November.”
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan
Ethereum exchange-traded products will attract $15 billion in net flows in their first 18 months on the market, Bitwise’s Matt Hougan said in a recent X post.
Hougan based his prediction on data from Europe and Canada, where crypto ETFs have established markets.
While $15 billion is significantly less than the $56 billion investors have piled into US Bitcoin ETFs, he still said such a figure would be a “historic success.”
“Only four ETFs launched since January 2020 have gathered $15 billion in flows,” he said, adding that he believes Ether’s best days are ahead of it.
Hougan’s analysis came with a caveat, though.
He said there’s a “good chance” of initial net outflows from Ethereum ETFs after their launch as traders who played the discount-arbitrage game redeem out of Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust.
QCP
Singapore-based QCP is also looking at the Bitcoin ETF launch for clues.
“If the Bitcoin ETF approval was any indication, we could see a similar 60% rally from here,” the firm said in a Monday note.
With today’s prices, that would translate to Ethereum trading at around $5,430 in the months after its ETF launch.
QCP also spotted a market mismatch that could boost Ether’s price in the short-term.
Based on VanEck’s S-A filing, and the fact that its ETF is already listed by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, QCP said trading for the ETFs could start as early as next week.
The firm noted, however, that the Ether options market for July doesn’t appear to have reacted.
“If there is a substantial breakthrough in the approval process, it could catch the market by surprise,” QCP said on Wednesday.
Consensys’ Joe Lubin
Expect a “floodgate” of demand for Ether, which will likely lead to a supply crunch and drive prices higher, says Joe Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and founder of crypto infrastructure firm Consensys.
Institutions that have already gained exposure to Bitcoin ETFs “will most likely want to diversify into that second approved ETF,” Lubin told DL News.
Bernstein
Spot Ethereum ETFs will drive a 75% surge to $6,600, according to analysts at research firm Bernstein.
They extrapolated that number by looking at how the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January spurred a 75% rally in the following weeks.
“We would expect similar price action for ETH,” Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra said in a recent report.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is down 0.1% over the past 24 hours to trade at $61,141.
- Ethereum is up 0.6% to $3,398.
What we’re reading
- Lightspeed Ventures among crypto VCs piling millions into startup Stability.AI as crypto hype wanes — DL News.
- Ripple CEO Says Biden Will Lose Election Because Of SEC’s Gensler — Milk Road.
- State Department announces $5M bounty for OneCoin ‘Crypto Queen’ — Blockworks
- US Govt Moves $240M Worth Of Silk Road Bitcoin To Coinbase: BTC Price Reacts — Milk Road.
- Laser-eyed candidate cuts lonely path in French election as crypto ponders uncertain future — DL News.
Tim Craig is DL News’ Edinburgh-based DeFi Correspondent. Reach out to him with tips at tim@dlnews.com.