- Bitcoin is down as buzz around potential Bitcoin ETFs fade and high interest rates worries persist.
- Options traders remain keen on the most valuable cryptocurrency.
- Some are betting the price will jump back higher then $31,000 by the end of the year.
Happy Tuesday!
Courtroom victories over the US Securities and Exchange Commission boosted crypto markets in August. Yet in the last few weeks the price of Bitcoin has fallen from its yearly high around $31,500.
Investors are once more in a familiar position — leaning into the headwinds. But there is one group that remain undeterred: options traders.
Headwinds persist
Bitcoin is set for a negative quarter, barring double digit gains this week, which seems unlikely when you consider volumes are depressed, regulatory concerns persist, and interest rates are set to remain “higher for longer” in the words of economist Mohamed El-Erian.
Options traders are betting prices will rise into the next halving in April — when the reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half.
Some options traders are betting Bitcoin could trade around $65,000 by the end of March next year, according to data from Paradigm, a crypto derivatives platform.
Other popular trades include the option to buy Bitcoin at $31,000 by December 23, which means traders expect it to trade above this level by then.
Investors previously rode the wave of enthusiasm in Bitcoin and crypto market through to about August 17 when crypto prices crashed.
Bitcoin plunged to about $26,000 overnight, and despite a brief bounce around the time of Grayscale’s courtroom win over the SEC it has largely failed to recover; it is currently trading around $26,200.
The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalisation is now down about 15% so far since June. Bitcoin had traded above $30,000 at one stage this summer, buoyed by positive news around spot Bitcoin ETF approval and the arrival of Wall Street bigwigs like BlackRock and Fidelity, in mid-June.
The outlook for the final quarter doesn’t look great either.
Inflation came in slightly above expectations in August and while the Fed didn’t increase interest rates it did make a massive revision to its rates outlook. Interest rates will now stay higher for longer, which has a negative impact on risk assets like Bitcoin.
Higher interest rates also benefit the US dollar, which has strengthened over the past month. The Dollar index, which measure the strength of the dollar versus a basket of international currencies, is up 1.8% in the last month. Bitcoin’s price moves lower when the dollar increases.
Nevertheless, some market participants expect Bitcoin to perform well in spite of these factors.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin gained about 0.7% since Monday to trade just above $26,200.
- Ethereum was up 1.3% to $1,590.
- Binance-affliated BNB and Ripple’s XRP added 2% and 1%, respectively.
What we’re reading
- Coinbase rails against SEC again with Celsius jab — DL News
- Arbitrum dominates Ethereum layer 2 battle — but it needs to be careful — DL News
- European Central Bank chief says ‘conspiracy theories’ hinder digital euro adoption — DL News
Adam Morgan McCarthy is DL News’ London-based Markets Correspondent. Got a tip? Reach out at adam@dlnews.com.