- Bitcoin has surged 130% in one year.
- Online bettors on Polymarket increasingly bet that Bitcoin could climb to $55,000 by March 1.
- However, options traders bet it can soar even higher.
Bitcoin has leaped past the $52,000 mark, but punters increasingly bet that it will climb past $55,000 by the end of the month.
However, professional traders are even more optimistic.
Online bettors
A bet placed on Polymarket, a blockchain-based betting site that allows users to wager on binary outcomes, put the likelihood of Bitcoin pushing past the $55,000 mark at 64%.
That’s up from Tuesday when bettors put the odds at 26%.
These bets are slightly more conservative than professional traders. Bitcoin options on Deribit show traders crowding into bets that pay off if the digital asset trades above $60,000 or $62,000 by March 1.
Traders on the CME hold similar bets, with $59,000 one of the most popular prices for Bitcoin options expiring in March.
Placed on January 11, the Polymarket bet has gathered over $154,000 and is due to expire at midnight eastern US time on February 29.
At the same time, bettors at rival prediction market Manifold put the odds at 57% that Bitcoin will this year beat its November 2021 all-time high of $69,000.
The renewed bullishness mirrors that of the overall market.
Bitcoin crossed the $52,000 barrier for the first time in two years on Thursday February 15, a 130% jump over the past year.
Factors like the buzz around spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, macroeconomic conditions and the upcoming halving event — when the rewards of Bitcoin miners will be slashed in half to 3.125 Bitcoin from 6.25 Bitcoin — have contributed to the jump.
What does the market think?
Market watchers estimate that Bitcoin could surge to between $150,000 and $200,000.
Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci is among the more bullish figures. He said early this year that a post-halving trigger will push Bitcoin’s price into the six-figure range of $170,000 or higher in the next year and a half.
He first made the prediction to Reuters in January, saying that the price on the day of the halving would be multiplied by four over the next 18 months.
In an interview with Scott Melker on “The Wolf of All Streets” podcast weeks later, Scaramucci explained that he used a benchmark price of $35,000 at the halving.
With Bitcoin surging past the $50,000 mark this week, Scaramucci’s calculation would put Bitcoin at $200,000 by July 2025, provided it holds that price.
What are prediction markets?
Polymarket and Manifold are two so-called prediction markets where users can, in Polymarket’s view, “profit from the things you know best.”
These platforms allow users to bet on a myriad of different topics, with the aim to produce meaningful insights into current events. The probability of each bet is determined by online voting.
Manifold users bet using the platform’s play money, Mana, and Polymarket users bet with USDC, Circle’s stablecoin.
Both platforms allow users to place bets on a myriad of topics ranging from crypto to politics and beyond, and they have drawn scrutiny over controversial bets.
Those include the possibility of former-First Lady Michelle Obama becoming the next US president, or past bets on whether FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried would be found guilty at his November trial.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin added around 1% since Wednesday, trading around $52,250.
- Ethereum is up 1.8% to just over $2,800.
What we’re reading
- Two Ethereum DeFi traders just made $120m using a strategy called ‘looping’ — DL News.
- Coinbase Surges Before Q4 Report Amid Bitcoin Rally — Milk Road.
- Bitcoin Passes the $1 Trillion Market Cap Mark; All Cryptos Combined Reach $2 Trillion — Unchained.
- Will Bitcoin’s price climb higher after the halving? Here’s what four experts say — DL News.
- Coinbase Surges Before Q4 Report Amid Bitcoin Rally — Milk Road.
Eric Johansson is DL News news editor. Adam Morgan McCarthy is DL News markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email them at eric@dlnews.com and adam@dlnews.com.
