Why the Trump-Harris debate will be pivotal for crypto prices

The second presidential debate is coming up — and it will be a big deal for crypto.

That’s according to Jake Ostrovskis, OTC trader at crypto market maker Wintermute, who wrote on August 30 that the event may be more significant for crypto prices than economic factors such as US jobs reports.

“Given the divergence in stance — specifically regarding crypto — between the candidates, a strong performance by either party will likely result in repricing,” Ostrovskis said in an email.

The event, scheduled for September 10, will pit Vice President Kamala Harris against former President Donald Trump for the first time.

Trump and Harris

Historically crypto-agnostic, Trump began to make overtures to the crypto industry in May.

Since then, he has promised to pardon Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, has met with Bitcoin mining executives, and made an appearance at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tennessee, the biggest crypto event of the year.

Trump’s friendliness towards the sector stands in contrast with the Biden’s administration animosity. The White House, for example, recently vetoed a motion to repeal SAB 121, a controversial crypto accounting rule, despite bi-partisan support for the repeal.

And while the Harris campaign has promised to “reset” relations with the industry, there has been scant evidence of a pivot.

Last week, OpenSea announced that it has received a Wells Notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission — an indication that the SEC may sue the NFT marketplace.

For the crypto community, the timing of the notice marks another hint that a Harris administration would serve as a continuation of the Biden regime.

Trump on that day announced a new set of digital trading cards, which themselves are listed on OpenSea, Gabe Parker, analyst at crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital, noted in an August 31 report.

While the two events are unlikely to be linked, “this juxtaposition highlights the clear divergence between the political parties on NFTs,” Parker said. “Trump is selling NFTs while Biden’s SEC Chair is suing artists, issuers, and exchanges for offering them.”

A strong performance from Trump during the September 10 debate will likely be seen as a bullish event by crypto investors. A Harris victory would be more difficult to interpret.

Will the debate matter?

While presidential debates don’t always move the needle in terms of election outcome, the previous face-off — Trump versus President Joe Biden, in June — resulted in Biden dropping out of the race over concerns that he was too old for the job.

Some derivatives traders are betting that crypto prices will swing wildly after the Trump-Harris debate, while staying agnostic as to the direction of these swings. That strategy will probably be rewarded, Ostrovskis said.

To be sure, Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told DL News that Bitcoin was unlikely to react to any election development because the race is essentially a toss-up.

“Bitcoin was more obviously a Trump trade when Trump had this 60-40 lead against [President] Biden in the polls,” Thompson said.

“It was like, Bitcoin is going to be fine, because he is going to win,” Thompson added.

Crypto market movers

• Bitcoin is up 2.1% over the past 24 hours to trade at $58,951.
• Ethereum is up 2.8% to trade at $2,516.

What we are reading

• Five drivers of record gold prices — and what it means for Bitcoin — DL News
• OKX Bags Full Singapore License, Taps Former MAS Official as CEO — Milk Road
• If the SEC Sues OpenSea, Here’s Why the NFT Platform Could Win Easily — Unchained
• Metaplanet Teams Up with SBI for Bitcoin Strategy Enhancement — Milk Road
• Binance exec pleads for bail and medical care in Nigerian money laundering trial — DL News

Tom Carreras writes about markets for DL News. Got a tip about Trump, Harris, and crypto? Reach out at tcarreras@dlnews.com.