Soothsaying is never easy.
So we’ll cut last year’s crystal ball gazers some slack as we size up how well their predictions compared to the events of 2023.
You may be surprised at the precision of some of their calls.
Bitcoin’s mother of a meltdown
Prediction: Bitcoin will drop to as low as $10,000.
What happened: Van Eck, the asset management firm, was one of several investment firms that said a volatile first quarter would mark the lowest point of the latest crypto winter. Moreover, fortunes would worsen if Ripple, the crypto-based payment enterprise, lost its litigation with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
But Bitcoin bottomed out around $16,500 in January and it’s been climbing ever since. And Ripple won its legal clashes with the government, bolstering its linked cryptocurrency, XRP, and helping build confidence the bear market was turning.
Bitcoin’s remarkable rally
Prediction: Bitcoin will skyrocket to $250,000
What happened: Tim Draper, the venture capitalist and longtime Bitcoin investor, forecasted Bitcoin would crush the bears. Anthony Scaramucci, the hedge fund investor and crypto bull, also projected the cryptocurrency would rally to as much as $100,000 in the next two to three years.
Obviously, Bitcoin didn’t hit six digits, but Draper and Scaramucci should get props for anticipating a bullish surge in BTC at a time when the market was all doom and gloom.
The fact is, Bitcoin did jump more than 150% in 2023, which is quite the rebound.
Web3 is sooo hot right now
Prediction: Fashion will be the killer app for mass web3 adoption
What happened: Cathy Hackl, a tech futurist who has advised companies such as Ralph Lauren and Clinique on breaking into the metaverse, predicted fashion and web3 technologies would inspire designers and consumers alike to explore new business models, especially when it came to luxury brands.
Throw in generative artificial intelligence in content creation and you would have a new paradigm-validating, blockchain-based offerings.
Alas, web3 remained something of a punch line for most of the year, with even popular NFTs such as Bored Ape Yacht Club losing their mojo.
Money laundering gets decentralised
Prediction: Authorities will focus on cross-chain money laundering in crypto.
What happened: David Carlisle, vice president of Policy and Regulatory Affairs at Elliptic, the blockchain research firm, said the emergence of decentralised finance posed a new challenge for law enforcement officials worldwide.
And multi-chain ecosystems were especially ripe for legerdemain.
While DeFi turned out to be more of a hotbed for hacks and exploits, washing dirty money was a top priority for US authorities, as the Binance and Changpeng Zhao criminal cases demonstrated.
Binance even agreed to install an independent monitor for five years to make sure it developed and complied with anti-money laundering and anti-terror finance practices.
Have a tip about crypto? Get in touch at callan@dlnews.com.